CREB’s CREB October 2026 statistics package put the City of Calgary apartment benchmark price at $288,800 in October 2026, down 7.94% from a year earlier, while the detached benchmark sat at $735,100, down 0.72%. Same city, same month, a gap of more than seven points.
My thesis in one line: the mix of people arriving in Alberta changed before the headline did, and the apartment segment is where a change in mix shows up first. I write this from Calgary, Alberta, so I have watched the local version of this for a while. The numbers below are public. The reading is mine, and I will mark where the data stops and my inference starts.
What is happening to the Calgary real estate market?
According to CREB, Calgary’s total residential benchmark price was $564,200 in October 2026, down 0.35% year over year, while sales fell 15.27% to 1,592 and months of supply rose to 3.88 from 3.44. A flat headline price with falling volume is a market where sellers are refusing to cut and buyers are refusing to pay up. The split underneath is the more useful read.
| Segment | Oct 2026 benchmark (CREB) | Y/Y change (CREB) | Implied year-earlier (my arithmetic) | Implied dollar change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $735,100 | -0.72% | about $740,400 | about -$5,300 |
| Semi-detached | $685,200 | +0.78% | about $679,900 | about +$5,300 |
| Row | $407,500 | -5.12% | about $429,500 | about -$22,000 |
| Apartment | $288,800 | -7.94% | about $313,700 | about -$24,900 |
Apartments are down roughly $24,900 and rows roughly $22,000, while detached is down roughly $5,300. The apartment benchmark was about 42.4% of the detached benchmark a year ago. It is 39.3% now. The cheap end of the market repriced and the expensive end mostly did not.
A total is an average of things that are not the same. Read the parts.
Which variables decide whether this continues?
Five things move the outcome, and they are not equally well measured.
- International inflow. The CREA Statistics migration table shows Alberta net international immigration of 10,770 in Q2 2026, down 37.5% from Q2 2025. Working backwards, that is roughly 17,200 a year earlier, a drop of about 6,500. This is the Alberta figure, not Calgary alone.
- Interprovincial inflow. The same table shows net interprovincial migration of 5,893, up 6.7%. Backing out the year-earlier base gives roughly 5,500, so about 370 more people on a net basis.
- Where each group lands. This one is inference, not data. My reading is that arrivals from abroad lean toward renting and smaller units, while people moving in from other provinces more often arrive able to compete for houses. Neither CREB nor CREA publishes that split in these tables, so treat it as a hypothesis to test.
- Seller behaviour. CREB reports new listings down 9.41% to 2,928 and inventory down 4.62% to 6,173. Sellers are pulling back, which is what holds the headline price near flat. The sales-to-new-listings ratio slipped to 54.37% from 58.14%.
- Rental data. Sale prices are the lagging read. Rents and vacancy from CMHC would be the direct test of a mix story, and they are not in these tables.
What does the arithmetic say about migration?
Alberta net total migration was 16,663 in Q2 2026, down 26.7%, which implies about 22,700 a year earlier. The international component was 10,770 against roughly 17,200, so it was about 64.6% of the net total this year versus about 75.8% last year.
Net total fell by roughly 6,100. International fell by roughly 6,500. Interprovincial added roughly 370. In other words the entire decline came from abroad, and the interprovincial side was slightly stronger. If the people who stopped arriving were the ones filling smaller rental-oriented units, apartment pricing is exactly where you would expect the first pressure. That is consistent with the table above. It is not proof.
When the inflow changes composition, the segment that served the missing group reprices first.
What would change this read?
Scenarios, with the condition that triggers each and what would prove me wrong.
- Base: international net stays at or below the Q2 2026 level while interprovincial holds. Apartments keep drifting lower in the mid single digits, detached stays roughly flat, and months of supply works above 4. Trigger: the next Alberta migration print and the next two CREB packages.
- Bear: sellers stop withdrawing. New listings turn positive year over year while sales stay down double digits, and the pressure spreads from apartments and rows into detached. Trigger: CREB listings flip while sales do not recover.
- Bull: international inflow recovers toward last year’s roughly 17,200 and apartments stabilise across consecutive CREB prints. Trigger: both, not one.
What falsifies me: apartment prices stabilising while international inflow stays down, which would mean migration mix is not the driver, or CMHC data showing rents rising while sale prices fall, which would point to financing and supply instead of demand composition. I would rather say that now than discover it later. I wrote about the same habit of reading the incentive line instead of the headline in the homebuilder incentives Investor Read.
Be diligent to know the state of your flocks. A herd is not one number, it is every animal you are counting.
Common questions
Is the Calgary real estate market going down?
According to the CREB October 2026 statistics package, Calgary’s total residential benchmark price was $564,200, down 0.35% from a year earlier. Detached fell 0.72% and apartments fell 7.94%. Sales fell 15.27% to 1,592 while months of supply rose to 3.88 from 3.44.
How much did Alberta net migration fall in Q2 2026?
CREA Statistics reports Alberta net total migration of 16,663 in Q2 2026, down 26.7% from Q2 2025. Net international immigration was 10,770, down 37.5%, while net interprovincial migration was 5,893, up 6.7%. These are Alberta-wide figures, not Calgary-only.
What is months of supply in Calgary?
CREB reported 3.88 months of supply for Calgary in October 2026, up from 3.44 in October 2025. Months of supply is inventory divided by the pace of sales, so it rises when sales slow faster than listings are withdrawn.
Why compare apartments to detached homes when reading migration?
Segments respond differently to who is arriving. In my reading, an inflow that tilts toward renters and smaller units hits apartment demand before it reaches detached demand. That is an inference to be tested against rental data, not a figure published by CREB or CREA.
Sources: CREB October 2026 statistics package; CREA Statistics migration table. Figures are for the City of Calgary (CREB) and Alberta (CREA) as published. Derived figures are my arithmetic from the published changes.
Not investment advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets referenced are the published views of the institutions named, not mine. Figures are accurate as of the publication date and will go stale. Do your own research, and speak to a licensed advisor before acting on anything you read here.
