Capital · Hard Assets · Gold
Every Ounce Ever Mined
Still Exists.
The bull case for gold as gold buyers make it, the supply arithmetic that sits under it, what central banks have actually been doing, and the case against at the same weight.
About 222,600 tonnes of gold has been mined in all of history, as at Q2 2026. Mine production in 2025 was a record 3,671.6 tonnes, which adds roughly 1.65% to that stock in a year. Central banks bought 863.3 tonnes in 2025 after 1,092.4 tonnes in 2024.
Ever Mined
All of it, all of history, as at Q2 2026. Source: World Gold Council.
Annual Supply Growth
2025 mine output of 3,671.6t against the total above.
Central Banks 2025
After 1,092.4t in 2024. Source: World Gold Council.
Total Supply 2025
Mine plus recycling. The highest since 1970.
The Bull Case, As Bulls Make It
Five arguments, stated at their strongest. This is the case gold buyers make, not a forecast from this site.
Supply Grows Slower Than Almost Anything
Record mine production in 2025 was 3,671.6 tonnes against a 222,600 tonne stock. That is 1.65% in the best year the industry has ever had. Gold cannot be printed and, unlike almost every other commodity, it cannot really be produced faster either.
Nothing Gets Consumed
Copper gets buried in walls and oil gets burned. Almost every ounce of gold ever mined is still above ground, which is why the stock to flow ratio is what it is and why supply shocks in gold behave nothing like supply shocks in an industrial metal.
Central Banks Are The Buyer That Does Not Flinch
Above 1,000 tonnes in 2022, 2023 and 2024, and 863.3 tonnes in 2025. These are buyers with no price target and no redemption pressure, which is a different kind of demand to anything in a retail market.
Recycling Did Not Answer The Price
Recycled supply rose only 3% in 2025 to 1,404.3 tonnes despite the price. The usual pressure valve did not open. Bulls read that as holders being unwilling to sell at any price the market has offered so far.
It Is Nobody Else’s Liability
A bond is a promise, a deposit is a promise, and a currency is a promise. Gold is the only reserve asset that is not simultaneously somebody else’s obligation. That is the whole reason it is on central bank balance sheets and not, say, silver.
The Case Against, At The Same Weight
The other half. If you skip it you are reading an advertisement.
It Produces Nothing
No coupon, no dividend, no earnings. A bar of gold in ten years is still a bar of gold. The entire return depends on somebody paying more for it later, which is the same criticism most gold buyers level at the assets they avoid.
It Costs Money To Own
Vaulting, insurance and spreads are a negative carry that runs every year whether the price moves or not. Against an asset that pays you to hold it, gold starts each year behind.
Supply Just Hit A Record
Total supply in 2025 was 5,002.3 tonnes, the highest in a data series going back to 1970. The scarcity argument is real over centuries and considerably weaker over the timeframe most buyers actually hold for.
Central Bank Buying Slowed
From 1,092.4 tonnes in 2024 to 863.3 tonnes in 2025, a 21% decline, and the World Gold Council itself notes it fell short of the plus 1,000 tonne level of recent years. The most cited pillar of the bull case got weaker, not stronger.
It Has Gone Nowhere For Decades Before
Gold went sideways to down for roughly twenty years after 1980. An asset with no cash flow has no mechanism that forces a recovery, so there is no arithmetic reason that cannot happen again.
What I Take From It
Not advice. How the argument reads to someone who builds businesses rather than trades metals.
Gold Is Insurance, Priced Like Insurance
Insurance is supposed to cost you a little every year and pay out in the year everything else fails. Judging gold on a good year for equities is like judging fire insurance on a year the house did not burn down.
The Central Bank Bid Is The Only New Thing
The scarcity argument has been true for five thousand years and it does not explain any particular decade. Three consecutive years above a thousand tonnes of official sector buying is a change in who is on the other side of the trade, and that is the part actually worth watching.
A Negative Carry Sets The Position Size
Anything that costs money to hold has to be sized so the annual cost is invisible to you. If the storage bill is a number you notice, the position is too big for the job it is doing.
Two Metals Is Not Diversification
Gold and silver move together most of the time. Holding both is one position expressed twice, not two positions, and pretending otherwise is how a book ends up far more concentrated than it looks on paper.
Bitcoin figures from CoinGecko. Gold figures from the World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends full year 2025 and the Goldhub above ground stocks series as at Q2 2026. Silver figures from the Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026 and its 2025 market review. Read on the date shown against each figure, and none of it is a price.
The Other Two
Same shape, same rule: the bull case and the case against, at the same weight.
Bitcoin
The bull case for Bitcoin as the people who hold it actually make it, the supply schedule underneath it, and the case against, at the same weight..
Silver
The bull case for silver as silver buyers make it: a market in its sixth straight annual deficit, industrial demand that does not care about the price, and the case against at the same weight..
Common Questions
That supply grows only about 1.65% a year even in a record year, that almost every ounce ever mined still exists so nothing is consumed, that central banks have been buying at levels above 1,000 tonnes a year, that recycled supply barely responded to higher prices, and that gold is the only major reserve asset that is not somebody else’s liability.
About 222,600 tonnes as at Q2 2026, according to the World Gold Council. Mine production in 2025 was a record 3,671.6 tonnes, so a record year adds roughly 1.65% to the total stock.
Central banks bought 863.3 tonnes in 2025 and 1,092.4 tonnes in 2024, according to the World Gold Council. Purchases were above 1,000 tonnes in 2022, 2023 and 2024, and the 2025 figure was a 21% decline on the prior year.
That it produces nothing and costs money to store, so it starts every year behind an asset that pays you to hold it. Total supply in 2025 was also the highest since at least 1970, and central bank buying fell 21% year on year, which weakens two pillars of the bull case at once.
No. It sets out the arguments on both sides of a position. Cody Wise is not a licensed financial advisor and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
A Thesis You Cannot
Argue Against Is Not One.
Every position on this site is published with the reasoning and the counter argument attached. That is the whole standard.
Not financial advice.