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Sized To Be Written Off

Two positions, one rule. The sizing is the thesis, and the sizing is decided before anything is bought.
Card reading Size It To Be Written Off. Two positions, one rule.

Crypto

There are two memecoins in my book, dogwifhat and Pudgy Penguins, and they are the smallest bucket in it. Attention as an asset, position sized accordingly.

The sizing is not a detail of the position. The sizing is the position.

The Condition Comes Before The Coin

The memecoin sleeve is small enough that a total loss changes nothing about the plan. That is the only condition under which it belongs here at all.

Read that as a gate rather than a description. If a memecoin position is large enough that losing all of it would change what I do next, it is not a memecoin position any more. It is a bet on a thing with no cash flows, no governance rights and no claim on any underlying business, sized like a conviction.

Most of the category ends at zero. That is not pessimism, it is the base rate, and a sizing rule is what lets you hold something whose base rate is zero without needing it to work.

What The Numbers Actually Look Like

dogwifhat is the cleanest illustration. It launched on Solana in November 2023 from an anonymous team, built on a 2019 photograph of a Shiba Inu in a pink knitted hat. It bottomed at $0.001555 on 12 December 2023 and peaked at $4.83 on 31 March 2024, on a market capitalisation of $4.58 billion. Supply is fixed at 998,926,392 tokens with nothing held back.

Those two dates are 110 days apart. That is the entire run people describe when they talk about the coin.

The top is a date, and you only know which date afterwards.

Nobody sized a position in December 2023 knowing March 2024 was coming. The people who held through it held because the amount was small enough not to think about, which is the same reason they were still holding when it stopped.

Why This Sleeve Exists At All

A serious argument says it should not. The honest answer is that attention is a real force in this market and I would rather have a measured, published, deliberately tiny exposure to it than pretend it does not move prices.

The discipline is that the sleeve is not allowed to grow into a thesis. If it starts looking like a serious position, the sizing has drifted, not the analysis improved. Trim it back to a number that can go to zero on a Tuesday without a conversation.

What Never Gets Published

The coins are named. The reasoning is named. No dollar figure, balance or entry price appears anywhere on the site, and the allocation chart on the investing page is labelled illustrative ratio because that is what it is.

Each coin also has its own page with supply, all time high and all time low sourced from CoinGecko and dated. The live table ranks the top twenty five by market cap, and ranking size is not the same as ranking quality.

I am not a financial advisor and none of this is a recommendation. Most of this category goes to zero, which is the reason the rule exists.

Common Questions

How large is the memecoin sleeve?

Small enough that a total loss changes nothing about the plan. That is the condition it is held under rather than a target weight, and no dollar figure is published anywhere on the site.

Which memecoins are in it?

dogwifhat and Pudgy Penguins. Both are named with the reasoning attached, and each has its own page with supply and price history sourced from CoinGecko and dated.

What happened with dogwifhat?

It launched on Solana in November 2023, bottomed at $0.001555 on 12 December 2023 and peaked at $4.83 on 31 March 2024 at a $4.58 billion market cap. Supply is fixed at 998,926,392 tokens.

Why hold memecoins at all?

Because attention is a real force in this market. A measured, published, deliberately tiny exposure to it is more honest than pretending it does not move prices. The sizing rule is what makes it holdable.

What happens if the sleeve grows?

It gets trimmed. If it starts to look like a serious position, the sizing has drifted rather than the analysis improved. It is not allowed to grow into a thesis.

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